Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Noumea, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 January 2026, Thursday


	Blake Ellis		Bernard Tomic

	1	2
	3	1.36	Watch
	2.7	1.41	Watch
	2.55	1.46	Watch
	2.63	1.44
	2.59	1.44	Watch
	2.6	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.26)	1.43 ↓ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Blake Ellis
34.8%

Bernard Tomic
65.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

59%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

61.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Blake Ellis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Blake Ellis's form might have worsened.

Bernard Tomic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bernard Tomic's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Blake Ellis than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bernard Tomic than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Blake Ellis - Bernard Tomic Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ellis (votes: 2 - 50%). Tomic (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ellis is ranked ATP: 509. Tomic is ranked ATP: 187.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Tomic is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Blake Ellis
ATP Challenger
06.01.26	Blake Ellis - Andre Ilagan	2:0 ✺
05.01.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Blake Ellis	1:2 ✺
24.11.25	Pavle Marinkov - Blake Ellis	2:1 ✺
18.11.25	Tai Sach - Blake Ellis	Sach T. walkover ✺
17.11.25	Blake Ellis - Shinji Hazawa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWL?W
- Bernard Tomic
ATP Challenger
07.01.26	James Watt - Bernard Tomic	Watt J. retired ✺
06.01.26	Daniil Glinka - Bernard Tomic	0:2 ✺
25.11.25	Bernard Tomic - Philip Sekulic	1:2 ✺
24.11.25	Bernard Tomic - Marek Gengel	2:0 ✺
17.11.25	Hayato Matsuoka - Bernard Tomic	Tomic B. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 ?WLW?

Blake Ellis - Bernard Tomic: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide