Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: BERGAMO (ITALY), HARD (INDOOR) - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 3 November 2023, Friday


	Brandon Nakashima		Fabio Fognini

	1	2
	1.22	4	Watch
	1.25	3.6
	1.22	3.8	Watch
	1.26	4.09
	1.27	4.1
	1.22	4
	1.25	3.75	Watch
	1.22	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.44)	3.96 ↑ (2.62)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brandon Nakashima
76.1%

Fabio Fognini
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.6%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Brandon Nakashima's performance.

Fabio Fognini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fabio Fognini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brandon Nakashima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fabio Fognini than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fabio Fognini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	0%	22.2%

Brandon Nakashima - Fabio Fognini Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Nakashima will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Fognini will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakashima: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Both players are now playing unstable.

Fognini could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Nakashima is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Nakashima won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Challenger
02.11.23	Liam Broady - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
31.10.23	Mikhail Kukushkin - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
25.10.23	Brandon Nakashima - Arthur Cazaux	1:2 ✺
23.10.23	Richard Gasquet - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
13.10.23	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWL
- Fabio Fognini
ATP Challenger
02.11.23	Hugo Grenier - Fabio Fognini	1:2 ✺
01.11.23	Matteo Martineau - Fabio Fognini	0:2 ✺
ATP Basel
21.10.23	Fabio Fognini - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.10.23	Alexandre Muller - Fabio Fognini	2:1 ✺
11.10.23	Denis Yevseyev - Fabio Fognini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Sydney
11.01.22	Fabio Fognini - Brandon Nakashima	0:2
ATP San Diego
27.09.21	Fabio Fognini - Brandon Nakashima	1:2

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