Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cancun 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 August 2026, Wednesday


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Nicolas Mejia

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.80	1.91
	1.76	1.95	Watch
	1.88	2.02
	1.81	1.89	Watch
	1.85	1.97
	1.78	1.9	Watch
	1.76	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.99)	1.95 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
52%

Nicolas Mejia
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

49.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Camilo Ugo Carabelli's performance.

Nicolas Mejia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nicolas Mejia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Nicolas Mejia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Mejia will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 76. Mejia is ranked ATP: 122.

Ugo Carabelli has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Mejia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ugo Carabelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ugo Carabelli won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Miomir Kecmanovic	0:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
03.08.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Cameron Norrie	0:2 ✺
ATP Estoril
20.07.26	Titouan Droguet - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1 ✺
ATP Umag
16.07.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1 ✺
15.07.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLW
- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.26	Adam Walton - Nicolas Mejia	2:0 ✺
13.08.26	Henrique Rocha - Nicolas Mejia	1:2 ✺
13.08.26	Nicolas Mejia - Jacob Fearnley	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Nicolas Mejia - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
03.08.26	Nicolas Mejia - Martin Landaluce	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.08.22	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Nicolas Mejia	2:0
28.09.21	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Nicolas Mejia	2:0
ITF Tournaments
09.05.19	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Nicolas Mejia	0:2

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Nicolas Mejia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide