Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Umag, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 15 July 2026, Wednesday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Camilo Ugo Carabelli

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.61	2.33	Watch
	1.75	2.24
	1.57	2.34	Watch
	1.70	2.20	Watch
	1.62	2.30	Watch
	1.58	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.59)	2.29 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
58.5%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Carreno Busta will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carreno Busta: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 65. Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 58.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Carreno Busta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Carreno Busta could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carreno Busta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Umag
14.07.26	Matej Dodig - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.26	Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
29.06.26	Denis Shapovalov - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Shapovalov D. Retired ✺
ATP Roland Garros
31.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
29.05.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WL?LW
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Umag
14.07.26	Marko Topo - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar	Ugo Carabelli C. Retired ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
25.06.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Mattia Bellucci	1:2 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
22.06.26	Jack Pinnington Jones - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Canceled ✺
ATP Roland Garros
27.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Andrey Rublev	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 W?L?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
07.05.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1

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