Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham 3, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 January 2026, Tuesday


	Carl Emil Overbeck		Toby Samuel

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.55	1.46	Watch
	2.6	1.44	Watch
	2.63	1.44
	2.59	1.44	Watch
	2.54	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.54)	1.45 ↑ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carl Emil Overbeck
35.9%

Toby Samuel
64.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

63.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

65.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carl Emil Overbeck has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Toby Samuel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carl Emil Overbeck than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Carl Emil Overbeck - Toby Samuel Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Overbeck will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Samuel will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toby Samuel will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Overbeck is ranked ATP: 524. Samuel is ranked ATP: 261.

Recent performances by Overbeck have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Samuel is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Overbeck may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Samuel could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Samuel will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carl Emil Overbeck
ATP Challenger
05.01.26	Ben Jones - Carl Emil Overbeck	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Carl Emil Overbeck - Pedro Vives Marcos	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Carl Emil Overbeck - Alex Bolt	0:2 ✺
26.11.25	Jason Kubler - Carl Emil Overbeck	Kubler J. retired ✺
25.11.25	Matthew Dellavedova - Carl Emil Overbeck	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWL?W
- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
30.11.25	Toby Samuel - Ilia Simakin	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Toby Samuel - Matisse Bobichon	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Toby Samuel - Sergey Fomin	2:0 ✺
27.11.25	Toby Samuel - Semen Pankin	2:0 ✺
26.11.25	Kimmer Coppejans - Toby Samuel	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWW?

Carl Emil Overbeck - Toby Samuel: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide