Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 August 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1


	Casper Ruud		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.75	Watch
	2.15	1.7	Watch
	2.25	1.74
	2.18	1.68	Watch
	2.24	1.65	Watch
	2.12	1.74	Watch
	2.15	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.92)	1.71 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casper Ruud
44.3%

Joao Fonseca
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casper Ruud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Casper Ruud's form might have worsened.

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Joao Fonseca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Casper Ruud, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Joao Fonseca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	0%	64.3%

Casper Ruud - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Ruud will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Fonseca will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fonseca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ruud is ranked ATP: 14. Fonseca is ranked ATP: 27.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ruud won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Joao Fonseca - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casper Ruud
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Casper Ruud - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
ATP Gstaad
17.07.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Casper Ruud	2:1 ✺
16.07.26	Jaime Faria - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Casper Ruud - Hubert Hurkacz	0:3 ✺
Exhibition Hurlingham Men
25.06.26	Casper Ruud - Ben Shelton	0:2
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLWLL
- Joao Fonseca
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
Exhibition UTS Championship Men
18.07.26	Joao Fonseca - Corentin Moutet	3:1 ✺
17.07.26	Joao Fonseca - Nick Kyrgios	0:3 ✺
17.07.26	Joao Fonseca - Tallon Griekspoor	3:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.26	Roman Safiullin - Joao Fonseca	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
31.05.26	Casper Ruud - Joao Fonseca	1:3

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