Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Costa do Sauipe, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Christian Garin		Daniel Vallejo

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.7	2.03	Watch
	1.68	2.07	Watch
			Watch
	1.72	2.04	Watch
	1.63	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.59)	2.09 ↓ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
55.6%

Daniel Vallejo
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.7%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Daniel Vallejo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Christian Garin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Vallejo than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Vallejo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Christian Garin - Daniel Vallejo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Garin will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Vallejo will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniel Vallejo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 107. Vallejo is ranked ATP: 190.

Garin is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Vallejo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Vallejo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Garin will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Garin won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Vallejo - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.86%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP Challenger
25.10.25	Mariano Navone - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Andrea Collarini - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
23.10.25	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Facundo Diaz Acosta - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Daniel Vallejo - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWWW
- Daniel Vallejo
ATP Challenger
25.10.25	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Daniel Vallejo	0:2 ✺
24.10.25	Daniel Vallejo - Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida	2:0 ✺
23.10.25	Igor Gimenez - Daniel Vallejo	0:2 ✺
19.10.25	Daniel Vallejo - Pedro Boscardin Dias	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Daniel Vallejo - Joao Eduardo Schiessl	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
04.10.25	Daniel Vallejo - Christian Garin	0:2

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