Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phoenix (USA), hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 March 2025, Thursday


	Colton Smith		Roman Safiullin

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2	1.7	Watch
	2.19	1.7
	2.13	1.69	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.09	1.69	Watch
	2	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.36)	1.67 ↑ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colton Smith
44.1%

Roman Safiullin
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colton Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Roman Safiullin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Colton Smith that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roman Safiullin than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Roman Safiullin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Colton Smith - Roman Safiullin Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 15 - 75%). Safiullin will win (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Smith: 56% – 94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 261. Safiullin is ranked ATP: 69.

Smith is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Safiullin is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Safiullin could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Safiullin will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colton Smith
ATP Challenger
11.03.25	Colton Smith - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
05.03.25	Colton Smith - Flavio Cobolli	2:1 ✺
04.03.25	Colton Smith - Pavel Kotov	2:0 ✺
03.03.25	Fabio Fognini - Colton Smith	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLWWW
- Roman Safiullin
ATP Challenger
11.03.25	Christopher Eubanks - Roman Safiullin	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Roman Safiullin - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
05.03.25	Roman Safiullin - Reilly Opelka	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.25	Roman Safiullin - Tallon Griekspoor	1:2 ✺
23.02.25	Roman Safiullin - Otto Virtanen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWLW

Colton Smith - Roman Safiullin: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide