Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phoenix (USA), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 March 2025, Tuesday


	Colton Smith		Alexander Shevchenko

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.4	2.7
	1.45	2.55	Watch
	1.5	2.63
	1.49	2.56	Watch
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.45	2.63	Watch
	1.45	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.6)	2.63 ↑ (2.21)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colton Smith
64.5%

Alexander Shevchenko
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colton Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Colton Smith's performance.

Alexander Shevchenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexander Shevchenko might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Colton Smith that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Shevchenko than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alexander Shevchenko could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Colton Smith - Alexander Shevchenko Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Shevchenko will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Smith: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 261. Shevchenko is ranked ATP: 98.

Recent matches Smith is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Shevchenko is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Shevchenko could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Smith will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Alexander Shevchenko - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.05%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colton Smith
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
05.03.25	Colton Smith - Flavio Cobolli	2:1 ✺
04.03.25	Colton Smith - Pavel Kotov	2:0 ✺
03.03.25	Fabio Fognini - Colton Smith	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.02.25	Kamil Majchrzak - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWWL
- Alexander Shevchenko
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Rinky Hijikata	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
25.02.25	Mariano Navone - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
19.02.25	Alexander Zverev - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
17.02.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	2:0 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
10.02.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Michael Mmoh	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLWL

Colton Smith - Alexander Shevchenko: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide