Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 April 2026, Tuesday


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Joel Schwaerzler

	1	2
	1.8	1.91
	1.82	2.06
	1.75	1.94	Watch
	1.67	2.1
	1.75	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.4)	1.99 ↓ (2.7)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
53.1%

Joel Schwaerzler
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.3%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniel Merida Aguilar's form might have worsened.

Joel Schwaerzler has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Joel Schwaerzler's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Joel Schwaerzler, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 136. Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 177.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Merida Aguilar could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Merida Aguilar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 65.85%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Bucharest
05.04.26	Mariano Navone - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Fabian Marozsan - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Titouan Droguet - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
31.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LWLWW
- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Stefan Horia Haita - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
08.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Marco Cecchinato	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide