Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali 2, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday


	Joel Schwaerzler		Stefano Napolitano

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.69	2.04	Watch
	1.75	2.17
	1.66	2.08	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.67	2.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.57)	2.06 ↓ (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joel Schwaerzler
54.7%

Stefano Napolitano
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joel Schwaerzler has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Stefano Napolitano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefano Napolitano than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Schwaerzler will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Napolitano will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Napolitano (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 20.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 214. Napolitano is ranked ATP: 422.

Schwaerzler has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Napolitano is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Schwaerzler is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Schwaerzler will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Schwaerzler won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
08.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Marco Cecchinato	2:0 ✺
05.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Zdenek Kolar	2:1 ✺
03.03.26	Mathys Erhard - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWWWW
- Stefano Napolitano
ATP Challenger
08.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Luka Pavlovic - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Luka Mikrut	Mikrut L. retired ✺
03.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Corentin Denolly	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
08.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano	2:0
20.01.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano	Napolitano S. retired

Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide