Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bucharest, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Adrian Mannarino

	1	2
	1.22	4.33	Watch
			Watch
	1.25	3.85	Watch
	1.25	4.4
	1.21	4.16	Watch
	1.29	3.6	Watch
	1.23	4.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.32)	4.11 ↑ (3.32)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
76.8%

Adrian Mannarino
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.5%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.1%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniel Merida Aguilar's performance.

Adrian Mannarino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Adrian Mannarino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniel Merida Aguilar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Adrian Mannarino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.2%	0%	4.8%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Adrian Mannarino Predictions

Users Predictions: Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (20 of 21 users predict this - 95.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.13% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 136. Mannarino is ranked ATP: 43.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Merida Aguilar is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Saba Purtseladze	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Max Houkes	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
17.03.26	Zachary Svajda - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Dalibor Svrcina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWLLW
- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Tommy Paul - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Zhizhen Zhang - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.03.26	Billy Harris - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
12.03.26	Blaise Bicknell - Adrian Mannarino	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Matteo Berrettini - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWLWL

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