Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Milan, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 1 July 2026, Wednesday


	Daniel Rincon		Mathys Erhard

	1	2
			Watch
	1.70	2.05
	1.74	2.05	Watch
	1.73	2.22
	1.68	2.05	Watch
	1.71	2.12	Watch
	1.69	2.02	Watch
	1.69	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.84)	2.08 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Rincon
54.9%

Mathys Erhard
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Rincon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Mathys Erhard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Rincon than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Daniel Rincon - Mathys Erhard Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rincon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Daniel Rincon will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rincon is ranked ATP: 261. Erhard is ranked ATP: 377.

Rincon has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Erhard is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Erhard may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rincon won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Mathys Erhard - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 61% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Rincon
ATP Challenger
29.06.26	Daniel Rincon - Jacopo Vasami	Vasami J. Retired ✺
ATP Mallorca
20.06.26	Jamie Mackenzie - Daniel Rincon	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
19.06.26	Daniel Rincon - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
18.06.26	Daniel Rincon - Buvaysar Gadamauri	2:1 ✺
17.06.26	Daniel Rincon - Stefano Napolitano	Napolitano S. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 ??LW?
- Mathys Erhard
ATP Challenger
30.06.26	Mathys Erhard - Jurij Rodionov	2:0 ✺
29.06.26	Alejo Sanchez Quilez - Mathys Erhard	0:2 ✺
28.06.26	Jacopo Bilardo - Mathys Erhard	1:2 ✺
24.06.26	Mathys Erhard - Inaki Montes De La Torre	1:2 ✺
23.06.26	Thomas John Fancutt - Mathys Erhard	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
05.06.24	Mathys Erhard - Daniel Rincon	2:0

Daniel Rincon - Mathys Erhard: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide