Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Rome (Italy), clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 May 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rome (Italy) 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	21:05	beIN Sports
Bosnia And Herzegovina	13:05	SportKlub
Brazil	08:05	ESPN 2
Croatia	13:05	SportKlub
Czech Republic	13:05	CANAL+ Sport 2
France	13:05	beIN Sports
Germany	13:05	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Greece	14:05	Nova Sports
Romania	14:05	Digi Sport 2
Serbia	13:05	SportKlub
Slovenia	13:05	SportKlub
Ukraine	14:05	Setanta Sports
International	11:05	beIN Sports Connect


	Jelena Ostapenko		Aryna Sabalenka

	1	2
	3.5	1.3	Watch
	3.4	1.3
	3.6	1.3	Watch
	3.77	1.31
	3.77	1.32
	3.5	1.3
	3.51	1.31	Watch
	3.7	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (3.02)	1.31 ↓ (1.39)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jelena Ostapenko
26.7%

Aryna Sabalenka
73.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.4%

68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

68.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jelena Ostapenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Aryna Sabalenka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelena Ostapenko than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.1%	0%	63.9%

Jelena Ostapenko - Aryna Sabalenka Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Ostapenko will win (votes: 13 - 37.1%). Sabalenka will win (votes: 22 - 62.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabalenka: 46.9% – 78.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Now both players are in good shape.

Ostapenko could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Sabalenka is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Sabalenka to win the game is with odds 1.31.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ostapenko won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jelena Ostapenko
WTA Roma
13.05.24	Rebecca Sramkova - Jelena Ostapenko	1:2 ✺
12.05.24	Sara Sorribes Tormo - Jelena Ostapenko	1:2 ✺
10.05.24	Anastasia Potapova - Jelena Ostapenko	0:2 ✺
WTA Madrid
29.04.24	Jelena Ostapenko - Ons Jabeur	0:2 ✺
27.04.24	Jelena Ostapenko - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWLW
- Aryna Sabalenka
WTA Roma
13.05.24	Elina Svitolina - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2 ✺
12.05.24	Dayana Yastremska - Aryna Sabalenka	0:2 ✺
10.05.24	Katie Volynets - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2 ✺
WTA Madrid
04.05.24	Iga Swiatek - Aryna Sabalenka	2:1 ✺
02.05.24	Elena Rybakina - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Dubai
22.02.23	Jelena Ostapenko - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2
WTA Zhengzhou
13.09.19	Jelena Ostapenko - Aryna Sabalenka	0:2

Jelena Ostapenko - Aryna Sabalenka