Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Daniil Medvedev		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
	1.13	6.00	Watch
	1.11	6.25
	1.10	6.75
	1.13	6.77
	1.16	4.94	Watch
	1.11	6.85
	1.14	5.76	Watch
	1.12	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↑ (1.04)	6.13 ↓ (11.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 32.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
84.5%

Hugo Gaston
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

91.8%

8.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniil Medvedev's form might have worsened.

Hugo Gaston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hugo Gaston's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Daniil Medvedev - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Gaston will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gaston: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 8. Gaston is ranked ATP: 88.

Medvedev is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gaston is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Gaston may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Medvedev is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Gaston will win today's game, with odds of 7.27.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Medvedev won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Winston-Salem
25.08.26	Daniil Medvedev - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
18.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Marco Trungelliti - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Daniil Medvedev - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Daniil Medvedev	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLWLL
- Hugo Gaston
ATP US Open
28.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
26.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Andre Ilagan	2:0 ✺
25.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Guido Ivan Justo	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
21.08.26	Jesper De Jong - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Paris
05.11.21	Hugo Gaston - Daniil Medvedev	0:2

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