Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Quebec City, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday


	Hugo Gaston		Luca Van Assche

	1	2
	2.50	1.50	Watch
	2.55	1.45
	2.70	1.45	Watch
	2.79	1.49
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.70	1.48
	2.62	1.43	Watch
	2.55	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.3)	1.46 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hugo Gaston
35.8%

Luca Van Assche
64.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

59.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Luca Van Assche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Van Assche than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Hugo Gaston - Luca Van Assche Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Gaston will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Van Assche will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Van Assche: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Van Assche (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Van Assche (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gaston is ranked ATP: 97. Van Assche is ranked ATP: 54.

Recent form of Gaston has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Van Assche is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Van Assche may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Van Assche might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Van Assche will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Gaston won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Hugo Gaston - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.1%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hugo Gaston
ATP Challenger
21.08.26	Jesper De Jong - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
20.08.26	Alexei Popyrin - Hugo Gaston	Popyrin A. Retired ✺
ATP Cincinnati
11.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	1:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
01.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Duncan Chan	1:2 ✺
ATP Estoril
25.07.26	Luca Van Assche - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 W?LLL
- Luca Van Assche
ATP Challenger
21.08.26	Benjamin Bonzi - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
20.08.26	Rei Sakamoto - Luca Van Assche	1:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Luca Van Assche	2:0 ✺
12.08.26	Luca Van Assche - Dusan Lajovic	2:1 ✺
11.08.26	Luca Van Assche - Gustavo Heide	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Estoril
25.07.26	Luca Van Assche - Hugo Gaston	2:0
ATP Marrakech
31.03.26	Luca Van Assche - Hugo Gaston	2:0

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