Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday


	Egor Pleshivtsev		Luca Castelnuovo

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Egor Pleshivtsev
37.5%

Luca Castelnuovo
62.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.1%

61.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Egor Pleshivtsev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Egor Pleshivtsev than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Pleshivtsev is ranked ATP: 864., and Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 455..

In recent outings, Pleshivtsev has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Castelnuovo has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Pleshivtsev may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Castelnuovo holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Egor Pleshivtsev
ITF Tournaments
16.10.26	Egor Pleshivtsev - Matthew Dellavedova	0:2 ✺
16.10.26	Egor Pleshivtsev - Cruz Hewitt	2:0 ✺
15.10.26	Egor Pleshivtsev - Ye Hongyu	2:0 ✺
14.10.26	Evan Zhu - Egor Pleshivtsev	1:2 ✺
07.10.26	Yanki Erel - Egor Pleshivtsev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 LWWWL
- Luca Castelnuovo
ITF Tournaments
13.10.26	Jamie Mackenzie - Luca Castelnuovo	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
05.10.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Akira Santillan	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
22.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.09.26	Elias Ymer - Luca Castelnuovo	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Omar Jasika	Jasika O. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 ?LLL?

Egor Pleshivtsev - Luca Castelnuovo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide