Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuning 3, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Akira Santillan

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.10
	1.75	1.96	Watch
	1.71	2.02	Watch
	1.75	1.96
	1.74	1.95	Watch
	1.75	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.1)	1.99 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
53.6%

Akira Santillan
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Castelnuovo's performance.

Akira Santillan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Akira Santillan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Castelnuovo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Akira Santillan than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Akira Santillan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luca Castelnuovo - Akira Santillan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 447., and Santillan is ranked ATP: 317..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Santillan may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Castelnuovo has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Chengdu
22.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.09.26	Elias Ymer - Luca Castelnuovo	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Omar Jasika	Jasika O. Retired ✺
12.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Ilya Ivashka	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	Ji Sung Nam - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LL?LW
- Akira Santillan
ATP Challenger
29.09.26	Akira Santillan - Luka Pavlovic	0:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
23.09.26	Alex Bolt - Akira Santillan	2:1 ✺
22.09.26	Kaigaoge Kang - Akira Santillan	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Akira Santillan	2:0 ✺
14.09.26	Yaojie Zeng - Akira Santillan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
12.04.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Akira Santillan	Castelnuovo L. Walkover

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