Match Info
CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou 2, hard - 1/8-finalsDate: 16 September 2026, Wednesday
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Elias Ymer |
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Luca Castelnuovo |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 22.50
- The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Elias Ymer
64% | Luca Castelnuovo
36% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Elias Ymer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Elias Ymer, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-5.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luca Castelnuovo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.Elias Ymer - Luca Castelnuovo Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Ymer will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Castelnuovo will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 10.5 Games, 1st Set - over (2.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0 
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Preview
Ymer is ranked ATP: 197. Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 398.Ymer has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).Castelnuovo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).Ymer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. Ymer is expected to have a slight advantage in this match. The players have not played against each other recently.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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