Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bastad, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 July 2025, Monday


	Raphael Collignon		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.54	1.5
	2.45	1.53	Watch
	2.84	1.47
			Watch
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.58	1.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (2.75)	1.5 ↑ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raphael Collignon
36.4%

Luciano Darderi
63.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

65.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

71.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raphael Collignon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raphael Collignon than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Raphael Collignon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luciano Darderi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Raphael Collignon - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Darderi (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Luciano Darderi will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.27% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luciano Darderi will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Collignon (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Darderi (votes: 10 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Collignon is ranked ATP: 85. Darderi is ranked ATP: 59.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Darderi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Darderi will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Luciano Darderi - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 65.55%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raphael Collignon
ATP Challenger
10.07.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Raphael Collignon	2:1 ✺
09.07.25	Max Houkes - Raphael Collignon	1:2 ✺
08.07.25	Norbert Gombos - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.25	Raphael Collignon - Marin Cilic	0:3 ✺
ATP Hamburg
19.05.25	Raphael Collignon - Brandon Nakashima	Collignon R. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWWL?
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.25	Luciano Darderi - Jordan Thompson	1:3 ✺
03.07.25	Arthur Fery - Luciano Darderi	0:3 ✺
30.06.25	Luciano Darderi - Roman Safiullin	3:2 ✺
Exhibition Hurlingham Men
28.06.25	Marin Cilic - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
26.06.25	Matteo Berrettini - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWWWL

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