Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Sassuolo, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 June 2025, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Francesco Passaro		Elias Ymer

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.6	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.38	3.23
			Watch
			Watch
	1.37	2.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.62)	2.84 ↑ (2.23)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesco Passaro
66.6%

Elias Ymer
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Passaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Francesco Passaro's performance.

Elias Ymer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Elias Ymer might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Passaro than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francesco Passaro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elias Ymer could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Francesco Passaro - Elias Ymer Predictions

Users Predictions: Francesco Passaro will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francesco Passaro will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Passaro is ranked ATP: 143. Ymer is ranked ATP: 255.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Passaro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Passaro could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Passaro won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Elias Ymer - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.08%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Passaro
ATP Challenger
18.06.25	Francesco Passaro - Oriol Roca Batalla	2:0 ✺
17.06.25	Francesco Passaro - Oleg Prihodko	2:1 ✺
13.06.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
12.06.25	Viktor Durasovic - Francesco Passaro	0:2 ✺
10.06.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Francesco Passaro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLWW
- Elias Ymer
ATP Challenger
18.06.25	Raul Brancaccio - Elias Ymer	1:2 ✺
17.06.25	Elias Ymer - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:1 ✺
16.06.25	Elias Ymer - Raul Brancaccio	2:1 ✺
15.06.25	Elias Ymer - Maxime Janvier	2:0 ✺
11.06.25	Luca Nardi - Elias Ymer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
25.03.25	Francesco Passaro - Elias Ymer	1:2
ATP Roland Garros
23.05.23	Elias Ymer - Francesco Passaro	2:0

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