Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday


	Elise Mertens		Jessica Pegula

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.55	1.5
	2.7	1.47	Watch
	2.73	1.52
	2.53	1.51	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.64	1.49	Watch
	2.7	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (3.42)	1.49 ↑ (1.31)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Elise Mertens
36%

Jessica Pegula
64%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

72.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.9%

73.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elise Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elise Mertens's performance.

Jessica Pegula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jessica Pegula might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elise Mertens that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jessica Pegula could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.5%	0%	43.5%

Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Mertens will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Pegula will win (votes: 10 - 43.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mertens: 36.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Mertens (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Pegula (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 Games - Mertens (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 21 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Mertens (votes: 6 - 75%). Pegula (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Mertens is ranked WTA: 24. Pegula is ranked WTA: 4.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Pegula might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mertens won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elise Mertens
WTA Roma
08.05.25	Elise Mertens - Suzan Lamens	2:1 ✺
WTA Madrid
27.04.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Elise Mertens	2:1 ✺
25.04.25	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
19.04.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Elise Mertens	2:0 ✺
16.04.25	Elise Mertens - Diana Shnaider	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWLW
- Jessica Pegula
WTA Roma
08.05.25	Ashlyn Krueger - Jessica Pegula	0:2 ✺
WTA Madrid
27.04.25	Jessica Pegula - Moyuka Uchijima	0:2 ✺
25.04.25	Jessica Pegula - Eva Lys	2:0 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
19.04.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Jessica Pegula	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	Magdalena Frech - Jessica Pegula	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Australian Open
14.01.25	Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula	0:2
WTA Roland Garros
02.06.23	Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula	2:0
WTA Dubai
11.03.21	Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula	2:1
WTA Cincinnati
26.08.20	Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula	2:0

Upcoming Matches