Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Maia, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Maia 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Elmer Moller		Lukas Neumayer

	1	2
	2.20	1.62	Watch
	1.95	1.75
	2.07	1.72	Watch
	2.02	1.71
	2.02	1.81
	2.02	1.69	Watch
	2.20	1.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.19)	1.7 ↑ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elmer Moller
45.1%

Lukas Neumayer
54.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.3%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

61.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elmer Moller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Lukas Neumayer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elmer Moller than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elmer Moller that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukas Neumayer than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lukas Neumayer could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Elmer Moller - Lukas Neumayer Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Moller will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Neumayer will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Neumayer (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moller is ranked ATP: 181., and Neumayer is ranked ATP: 180..

Moller is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Neumayer have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Neumayer could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Neumayer is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Moller has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:4 (averaging 0.5:2 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Lukas Neumayer - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.65%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elmer Moller
ATP Challenger
11.10.26	Elmer Moller - Matej Dodig	1:2 ✺
10.10.26	Elmer Moller - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
09.10.26	Elmer Moller - Tiago Pereira	2:1 ✺
08.10.26	Zsombor Piros - Elmer Moller	1:2 ✺
05.10.26	Thiago Monteiro - Elmer Moller	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWWWW
- Lukas Neumayer
ATP Challenger
10.10.26	Matej Dodig - Lukas Neumayer	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Lukas Neumayer - Max Alcala Gurri	2:1 ✺
08.10.26	Olle Wallin - Lukas Neumayer	0:2 ✺
07.10.26	Florian Broska - Lukas Neumayer	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Lukas Neumayer - Luka Mikrut	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
04.04.25	Elmer Moller - Lukas Neumayer	0:2
ATP Australian Open
06.01.25	Lukas Neumayer - Elmer Moller	2:1

Elmer Moller - Lukas Neumayer