Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: INDIAN WELLS (USA) - QUALIFICATION, HARD - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 6 March 2023, Monday


	Emilio Nava		Pavel Kotov

	1	2
			Watch
	2.45	1.5
	2.48	1.52
	2.45	1.53
	2.49	1.56
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.49	1.49	Watch
	2.42	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.58)	1.52 ↑ (1.48)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emilio Nava
38.3%

Pavel Kotov
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

63.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

67.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emilio Nava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Pavel Kotov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emilio Nava than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Emilio Nava that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pavel Kotov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.1%	0%	61.9%

Emilio Nava - Pavel Kotov Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Nava will win (votes: 8 - 38.1%). Kotov will win (votes: 13 - 61.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kotov: 41.1% – 82.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nava has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Kotov is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Kotov could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Kotov will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emilio Nava
ATP Challenger
27.02.23	Gijs Brouwer - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
ATP Marseille
19.02.23	Raul Brancaccio - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
ATP Montpellier
05.02.23	Arthur Cazaux - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
31.01.23	Vasek Pospisil - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
24.01.23	Emilio Nava - Gregoire Barrere	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Pavel Kotov
ATP Dubai
01.03.23	Pavel Kotov - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
27.02.23	Alexei Popyrin - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
26.02.23	Alexander Shevchenko - Pavel Kotov	Shevchenko A. retired ✺
25.02.23	Pavel Kotov - Roman Safiullin	2:1 ✺
ATP Doha
19.02.23	Oleksii Krutykh - Pavel Kotov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LW?WL

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