Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Murcia, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday


	Felix Gill		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	3.5	1.29	Watch
			Watch
	3.15	1.32	Watch
	3.33	1.36
	3.11	1.32	Watch
	2.75	1.4
	2.99	1.24	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (2.93)	1.32 ↓ (1.34)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felix Gill
29.6%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
70.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

65.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felix Gill has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Felix Gill than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Felix Gill, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pablo Carreno-Busta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Felix Gill - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gill is ranked ATP: 252. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 117.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Carreno Busta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Carreno Busta is a strong favorite.

We predict that Carreno Busta will win today's game, with odds of 1.34.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Felix Gill
ATP Challenger
17.03.26	Felix Gill - Filip Pieczonka	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Felix Gill - Federico Arnaboldi	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Felix Gill - Nicolas Parizzia	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Felix Gill - Max Basing	Canceled ✺
01.03.26	Federico Cina - Felix Gill	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWW?L
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
17.03.26	Carlos Sanchez Jover - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jiri Lehecka	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Luca Nardi	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLWWW

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