Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Dubai - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Luca Nardi

	1	2
			Watch
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.79	1.97	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.73	1.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.66)	1.99 ↓ (2.03)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
53.3%

Luca Nardi
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Luca Nardi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Luca Nardi Predictions

Users Predictions: Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 123. Nardi is ranked ATP: 94.

Carreno Busta is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Nardi has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Carreno Busta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carreno Busta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Dubai
21.02.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Doha
17.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Quentin Halys	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alexander Bublik	Canceled ✺
15.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Billy Harris	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Reda Bennani	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WL?WW
- Luca Nardi
ATP Dubai
21.02.26	Marco Trungelliti - Luca Nardi	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.02.26	Arthur Bouquier - Luca Nardi	2:1 ✺
09.02.26	Jerome Kym - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
06.02.26	Martin Damm - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
05.02.26	Luca Nardi - Flavio Cobolli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Hamburg
19.07.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Luca Nardi	2:0

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