Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Dubai, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.4
	2.9	1.37	Watch
	3	1.39	Watch
	2.9	1.4
	3	1.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↓ (3.14)	1.39 ↑ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
32.1%

Denis Shapovalov
67.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

69.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

69.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Carreno Busta will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Shapovalov will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Shapovalov (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 124. Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 36.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carreno Busta won 4.

Carreno Busta is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Shapovalov's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shapovalov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Shapovalov is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Carreno Busta won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Dubai
22.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Luca Nardi	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Doha
17.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Quentin Halys	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alexander Bublik	Canceled ✺
15.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Billy Harris	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWL?W
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Dubai
23.02.26	Tomas Machac - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
ATP Dallas
14.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Ben Shelton	1:2 ✺
13.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 ?LWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Paris
02.11.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	2:1
ATP Cup
09.01.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	0:2
ATP US Open
08.09.20	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	3:2
ATP Vienna
23.10.19	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	2:0
ATP Chengdu
28.09.19	Denis Shapovalov - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2
ATP Roma
13.05.19	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	0:2
ATP US Open
03.09.17	Denis Shapovalov - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:3

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