Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Dubai - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Botic Van De Zandschulp		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
			Watch
	1.55	2.31	Watch
	1.68	2.22
	1.56	2.37	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.54	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.62)	2.32 ↑ (2.16)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botic Van De Zandschulp
59.6%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botic Van De Zandschulp has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botic Van De Zandschulp than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Botic Van De Zandschulp that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pablo Carreno-Busta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Botic Van De Zandschulp - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Van De Zandschulp (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Botic Van De Zandschulp will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Botic Van De Zandschulp will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Van De Zandschulp (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Van De Zandschulp is ranked ATP: 55. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 123.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Van De Zandschulp may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Van De Zandschulp won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Botic Van De Zandschulp - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.22%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botic Van De Zandschulp
ATP Rotterdam
13.02.26	Alex De Minaur - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Luka Pavlovic - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
03.02.26	Ugo Humbert - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
24.01.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Novak Djokovic	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWLL
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Doha
17.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Quentin Halys	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alexander Bublik	Canceled ✺
15.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Billy Harris	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Reda Bennani	2:0 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
07.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 L?WWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
02.10.24	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2
ATP Madrid
03.05.22	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1

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