Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday


	Florent Bax		Gabriele Pennaforti

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.57	2.2	Watch
	1.68	2.29
	1.58	2.22	Watch
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.48)	2.23 ↓ (2.48)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Florent Bax
57.9%

Gabriele Pennaforti
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.7%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Florent Bax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Gabriele Pennaforti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	0%	55.6%

Florent Bax - Gabriele Pennaforti Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bax will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Pennaforti will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pennaforti: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Bax (2.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gabriele Pennaforti will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Bax (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Pennaforti (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bax is ranked ATP: 272. Pennaforti is ranked ATP: 608.

Bax has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Pennaforti may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Florent Bax
ATP Challenger
09.02.26	Florent Bax - Denis Yevseyev	Bax F. retired ✺
30.01.26	Daniel Michalski - Florent Bax	2:0 ✺
28.01.26	Florent Bax - Marek Gengel	Gengel M. retired ✺
27.01.26	Florent Bax - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
15.01.26	Florent Bax - Timofey Skatov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 ?L?WL
- Gabriele Pennaforti
ITF Tournaments
17.02.26	Yanaki Milev - Gabriele Pennaforti	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.11.25	Alejo Sanchez Quilez - Gabriele Pennaforti	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
14.11.25	Gabriele Pennaforti - Ziga Sesko	1:2 ✺
13.11.25	Gabriele Pennaforti - Michele Mecarelli	2:0 ✺
12.11.25	Gabriele Pennaforti - Giannicola Misasi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLLWW

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