Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Brazzaville, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday


	Florent Bax		Mathys Erhard

	1	2
	1.65	2.12
	1.72	2.2
	1.64	2.11	Watch
	1.67	2.1
	1.69	2.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.84)	2.11 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Florent Bax
55.8%

Mathys Erhard
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Florent Bax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Florent Bax's performance.

Mathys Erhard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mathys Erhard might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Florent Bax than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Florent Bax that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mathys Erhard could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Florent Bax - Mathys Erhard Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bax is ranked ATP: 254. Erhard is ranked ATP: 397.

Bax is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Erhard has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bax may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Florent Bax - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Mathys Erhard - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Florent Bax
ATP Challenger
07.05.26	Florent Bax - Younes Lalami Laaroussi	2:0 ✺
06.05.26	Florent Bax - Adrian Arcon	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	Niels Visker - Florent Bax	2:0 ✺
30.04.26	Aziz Dougaz - Florent Bax	1:2 ✺
28.04.26	Robert Strombachs - Florent Bax	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWLWW
- Mathys Erhard
ATP Challenger
07.05.26	Skander Mansouri - Mathys Erhard	Mansouri S. Retired ✺
05.05.26	Lawrence Bataljin - Mathys Erhard	0:2 ✺
05.05.26	Ivan Marrero Curbelo - Mathys Erhard	Canceled ✺
29.04.26	Mathys Erhard - Andrej Nedic	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Tomasz Berkieta - Mathys Erhard	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 ?W?LW

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