Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W75 Quinta do Lago, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 October 2025, Wednesday


	Francesca Curmi		Sofia Costoulas

	1	2
			Watch
	2.58	1.44	Watch
	2.77	1.41
	2.35	1.51	Watch
	2.59	1.45	Watch
	1.83	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (1.83)	1.53 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesca Curmi
38.7%

Sofia Costoulas
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesca Curmi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Francesca Curmi's form might have worsened.

Sofia Costoulas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sofia Costoulas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesca Curmi than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Francesca Curmi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sofia Costoulas than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sofia Costoulas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Francesca Curmi - Sofia Costoulas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Curmi is ranked WTA: 320. Costoulas is ranked WTA: 165.

Curmi has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Costoulas is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Costoulas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Costoulas might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Costoulas will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Curmi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Francesca Curmi - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Sofia Costoulas - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesca Curmi
ITF Tournaments
25.09.25	Darja Semenistaja - Francesca Curmi	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Francesca Curmi - Alice Rame	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.09.25	Tatiana Pieri - Francesca Curmi	Curmi F. retired ✺
15.09.25	Francesca Curmi - Verena Meliss	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Francesca Curmi - Angelica Raggi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LW?WW
- Sofia Costoulas
ATP Challenger
03.10.25	Sofia Costoulas - Linda Klimovicova	0:2 ✺
02.10.25	Sofia Costoulas - Lina Gjorcheska	2:0 ✺
01.10.25	Sofia Costoulas - Weronika Falkowska	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.09.25	Sofia Costoulas - Polina Iatcenko	Costoulas S. retired ✺
11.09.25	Sofia Costoulas - Gina Marie Dittmann	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWW?W

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
04.04.25	Francesca Curmi - Sofia Costoulas	2:1

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