Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Rennes, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rennes 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Francesco Maestrelli		Arthur Nagel

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Francesco Maestrelli
71.2%

Arthur Nagel
28.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

69.2%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.6%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Maestrelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Arthur Nagel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Nagel than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Maestrelli will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Nagel will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 168. Nagel is ranked ATP: 359.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Nagel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Maestrelli is the team to beat.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
11.09.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Maks Kasnikowski	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Alafia Ayeni	2:1 ✺
08.09.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Juan Pablo Ficovich	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.26	Toby Samuel - Francesco Maestrelli	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
18.08.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Alexei Popyrin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWWLL
- Arthur Nagel
ITF Tournaments
09.09.26	Maximilian Figl - Arthur Nagel	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Yassine Dlimi - Arthur Nagel	2:1 ✺
03.09.26	Diogo Morais - Arthur Nagel	0:2 ✺
02.09.26	Petros Tsitsipas - Arthur Nagel	0:2 ✺
23.08.26	Tim Handel - Arthur Nagel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWWW

Francesco Maestrelli - Arthur Nagel