Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Perugia, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 June 2025, Wednesday


	Luca Nardi		Elias Ymer

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.4	2.75
	1.36	2.8	Watch
	1.49	2.48	Watch
	1.44	2.62	Watch
	1.39	2.85	Watch
	1.36	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.64)	2.76 ↑ (2.18)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Nardi
66.3%

Elias Ymer
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Nardi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Nardi's performance.

Elias Ymer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Elias Ymer might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Nardi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elias Ymer could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Luca Nardi - Elias Ymer Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nardi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Luca Nardi will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nardi is ranked ATP: 98. Ymer is ranked ATP: 260.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Nardi might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Nardi - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 57.07%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Nardi
ATP Challenger
09.06.25	Luca Nardi - Saba Purtseladze	2:0 ✺
03.06.25	Luca Nardi - Daniel Rincon	1:2 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
25.05.25	Fabian Marozsan - Luca Nardi	3:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.05.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
14.05.25	Luca Nardi - Mariano Navone	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLLW
- Elias Ymer
ATP Challenger
09.06.25	Elias Ymer - Giulio Zeppieri	2:0 ✺
01.06.25	Elias Ymer - Tim Handel	0:2 ✺
ATP Hamburg
19.05.25	Elias Ymer - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
18.05.25	Elias Ymer - Marko Topo	2:1 ✺
17.05.25	Christopher OConnell - Elias Ymer	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLLWW

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