Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 4 August 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1, Max Sport 2
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	SportKlub 10, SportKlub 1, SportKlub 8, SportKlub 9
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Peru	ESPN 2
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1, TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis, Sky Sports+


	Francis Tiafoe		Marin Cilic

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.42	2.85
	1.43	2.80	Watch
	1.47	2.91
	1.48	2.66	Watch
	1.42	2.95
	1.46	2.81	Watch
	1.46	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.61)	2.82 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
66.1%

Marin Cilic
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Francis Tiafoe's performance.

Marin Cilic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marin Cilic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francis Tiafoe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marin Cilic than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marin Cilic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Francis Tiafoe - Marin Cilic Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Cilic will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 20. Cilic is ranked ATP: 85.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Tiafoe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tiafoe might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:2.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Francis Tiafoe - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 58.61%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Washington
27.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Terence Atmane	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Alexander Bublik	2:3 ✺
02.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jan Choinski	3:1 ✺
01.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Terence Atmane	3:1 ✺
ATP Mallorca
24.06.26	Francis Tiafoe - Ethan Quinn	Canceled
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWW?
- Marin Cilic
ATP Montreal
03.08.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Marin Cilic	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Marin Cilic - Daniil Medvedev	0:3 ✺
ATP London
16.06.26	Ugo Humbert - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
ATP Hertogenbosch
13.06.26	Daniil Medvedev - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	Nuno Borges - Marin Cilic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
14.09.18	Marin Cilic - Francis Tiafoe	3:0
ATP Laver Cup
22.09.17	Marin Cilic - Francis Tiafoe	2:0

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