Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 3 August 2026, Monday


	Sho Shimabukuro		Marin Cilic

	1	2
	2.10	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.75
	2.12	1.72	Watch
	2.05	1.85
	2.11	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.80
	2.11	1.72	Watch
	2.12	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.54)	1.76 ↑ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sho Shimabukuro
45.7%

Marin Cilic
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

63.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sho Shimabukuro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sho Shimabukuro's performance.

Marin Cilic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marin Cilic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sho Shimabukuro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marin Cilic than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marin Cilic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	0%	70%

Sho Shimabukuro - Marin Cilic Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Shimabukuro will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Cilic will win (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cilic: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 94. Cilic is ranked ATP: 86.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Shimabukuro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cilic will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Montreal
01.08.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:0 ✺
ATP Los Cabos
28.07.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Jaime Faria	1:3 ✺
ATP Halle
17.06.26	Francis Tiafoe - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
16.06.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLLLW
- Marin Cilic
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Marin Cilic - Daniil Medvedev	0:3 ✺
ATP London
16.06.26	Ugo Humbert - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
ATP Hertogenbosch
13.06.26	Daniil Medvedev - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	Nuno Borges - Marin Cilic	1:2 ✺
08.06.26	Marin Cilic - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLWW

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