Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday


	Francisco Cerundolo		Adrian Mannarino

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
			Watch
	1.85	1.96
	1.9	1.99
	1.73	2.03	Watch
	1.83	2.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.72)	1.98 ↓ (2.14)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francisco Cerundolo
51.8%

Adrian Mannarino
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francisco Cerundolo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Adrian Mannarino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Francisco Cerundolo - Adrian Mannarino Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Cerundolo will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Mannarino will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mannarino: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Adrian Mannarino will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 21. Mannarino is ranked ATP: 60.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Mannarino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cerundolo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Francisco Cerundolo - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 55.43%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Adrian Mannarino - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 44.57%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Beijing
26.09.25	Learner Tien - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
21.09.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.25	Jesper De Jong - Francisco Cerundolo	Canceled ✺
12.09.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLW?W
- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Shanghai
01.10.25	Adrian Mannarino - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Beijing
28.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
26.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Andrea Vavassori	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP United Cup
30.12.22	Adrian Mannarino - Francisco Cerundolo	Canceled

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