Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday


	Adrian Mannarino		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
			Watch
	2.55	1.49
	2.74	1.51
	2.65	1.48	Watch
	2.61	1.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.5)	1.48 ↓ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adrian Mannarino
35.8%

Lorenzo Musetti
64.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

62.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

64.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adrian Mannarino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Adrian Mannarino - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Mannarino (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Musetti (votes: 7 - 63.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Mannarino (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Musetti will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Mannarino (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Musetti (votes: 7 - 58.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mannarino is ranked ATP: 60. Musetti is ranked ATP: 9.

Now, both players are in good form.

Musetti is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Musetti will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mannarino won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Musetti - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 62.58%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Beijing
26.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Andrea Vavassori	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Alexander Shevchenko	Canceled ✺
ATP Hangzhou
17.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Yibing Wu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWW?L
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Beijing
26.09.25	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
23.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
22.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Dino Prizmic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Chengdu
22.09.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Adrian Mannarino	2:1
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.23	Adrian Mannarino - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0

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