Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Adrian Mannarino		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
			Watch
	2.9	1.37
	3.13	1.4
	1.76	2.07	Watch
	3	1.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.74)	1.53 ↑ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adrian Mannarino
35.7%

Alexander Bublik
64.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

65.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

68.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adrian Mannarino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Alexander Bublik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56%	0%	44%

Adrian Mannarino - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Mannarino will win (votes: 14 - 58.3%). Bublik will win (votes: 10 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mannarino: 38.6% – 78%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 20 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +4.5 Games - Mannarino (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Adrian Mannarino will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Mannarino (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Bublik (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mannarino is ranked ATP: 60. Bublik is ranked ATP: 16.

In recent matches, Mannarino has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bublik is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Mannarino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bublik will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Bublik will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mannarino won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Beijing
24.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Andrea Vavassori	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Alexander Shevchenko	Canceled ✺
ATP Hangzhou
17.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Yibing Wu	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.25	Adrian Mannarino - Jiri Lehecka	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WW?LL
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Hangzhou
23.09.25	Valentin Royer - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
22.09.25	Alexander Bublik - Yibing Wu	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Dalibor Svrcina - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Aleksandar Vukic - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
13.09.25	Hyeon Chung - Alexander Bublik	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Doha
06.01.20	Alexander Bublik - Adrian Mannarino	2:0

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