Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 19 January 2026, Monday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.66	2.24	Watch
	2.00	1.81	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.68	2.21	Watch
	1.62	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.61)	2.18 ↓ (2.47)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
56%

Sebastian Baez
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sebastian Baez, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.2%	0%	78.8%

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Mpetshi Perricard will win (votes: 7 - 21.2%). Baez will win (votes: 26 - 78.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baez: 64.9% – 92.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Mpetshi Perricard (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Baez will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Mpetshi Perricard (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Baez (votes: 14 - 82.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Mpetshi Perricard is ranked ATP: 63. Baez is ranked ATP: 39.

Mpetshi Perricard has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Baez is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Mpetshi Perricard may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mpetshi Perricard might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 60.54%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
ATP Auckland
15.01.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Cameron Norrie - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	1:2 ✺
12.01.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	0:2 ✺
ATP Brisbane
08.01.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:1 ✺
07.01.26	Rinky Hijikata - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWLW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Auckland
16.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
15.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Marcos Giron	2:0 ✺
15.01.26	Ben Shelton - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Jenson Brooksby - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
12.01.26	Emilio Nava - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 LWWWW

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Sebastian Baez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide