Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Auckland, hard - Final

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Sebastian Baez		Jakub Mensik

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.77	1.45	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.65	1.4	Watch
	2.65	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.33)	1.44 ↓ (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
34.9%

Jakub Mensik
65.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

59.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sebastian Baez's form might have worsened.

Jakub Mensik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jakub Mensik's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	0%	15.8%

Sebastian Baez - Jakub Mensik Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 16 - 84.2%). Mensik will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baez: 67.8% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5.5 Games - Baez (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Baez will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Baez (votes: 12 - 80%). Mensik (votes: 3 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 39. Mensik is ranked ATP: 18.

Baez has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Mensik has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Baez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mensik could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Sebastian Baez - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 40.71%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Jakub Mensik - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 59.29%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Auckland
15.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Marcos Giron	2:0 ✺
15.01.26	Ben Shelton - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Jenson Brooksby - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
12.01.26	Emilio Nava - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
ATP United Cup
07.01.26	Stanislas Wawrinka - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 WWWWW
- Jakub Mensik
ATP Auckland
15.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
15.01.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
14.01.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Jakub Mensik	1:2 ✺
ATP United Cup
08.01.26	Zizou Bergs - Jakub Mensik	2:0 ✺
06.01.26	Alex De Minaur - Jakub Mensik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWLL

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