Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Villa Maria, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday


	Gonzalo Bueno		Andrea Collarini

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.7	2.05
	1.7	2.03	Watch
	1.64	2.17	Watch
	1.69	2.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.83)	2.08 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gonzalo Bueno
55.4%

Andrea Collarini
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gonzalo Bueno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gonzalo Bueno's performance.

Andrea Collarini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Andrea Collarini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gonzalo Bueno than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gonzalo Bueno that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea Collarini than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Andrea Collarini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gonzalo Bueno - Andrea Collarini Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bueno is ranked ATP: 209. Collarini is ranked ATP: 245.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Collarini may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Bueno won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Gonzalo Bueno - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gonzalo Bueno
Davis Cup World Group I
13.09.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Jaime Faria	Canceled ✺
12.09.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Nuno Borges	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.09.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Javier Barranco Cosano	0:2 ✺
29.08.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Henri Squire	0:2 ✺
25.08.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Facundo Diaz Acosta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 ?WLLW
- Andrea Collarini
ATP US Open
21.08.25	Mitchell Krueger - Andrea Collarini	2:0 ✺
19.08.25	Jan Choinski - Andrea Collarini	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.08.25	Andrea Collarini - Gonzalo Bueno	0:2 ✺
31.07.25	Andrea Collarini - Cedrik-Marcel Stebe	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Andrea Collarini - Andrew Paulson	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
01.08.25	Andrea Collarini - Gonzalo Bueno	0:2
21.09.24	Gonzalo Bueno - Andrea Collarini	2:0
03.07.24	Gonzalo Bueno - Andrea Collarini	0:2

Gonzalo Bueno - Andrea Collarini: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide