Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Italy	Super Tennis


	Hailey Baptiste		Mirra Andreeva

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	3.2	1.36
	2.7	1.47	Watch
	2.89	1.52
	2.78	1.47	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.64	1.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.57)	1.46 ↓ (1.49)

The best margin for this event is 0.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hailey Baptiste
34.2%

Mirra Andreeva
65.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

63.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hailey Baptiste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Mirra Andreeva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hailey Baptiste than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hailey Baptiste, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirra Andreeva than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mirra Andreeva, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Hailey Baptiste - Mirra Andreeva Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Baptiste will win (votes: 5 - 25%). Andreeva will win (votes: 15 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Andreeva: 56% – 94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Andreeva (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baptiste is ranked WTA: 32. Andreeva is ranked WTA: 8.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

In this match, Andreeva is a strong favorite.

We predict that Andreeva will win today's game, with odds of 1.32.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Baptiste won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Mirra Andreeva - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 63.3%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hailey Baptiste
WTA Madrid
28.04.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Hailey Baptiste	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Belinda Bencic - Hailey Baptiste	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Kaitlin Quevedo	2:0 ✺
WTA Rouen
16.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Iryna Shymanovich	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 41.7 WWWWL
- Mirra Andreeva
WTA Madrid
28.04.26	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Mirra Andreeva	0:2 ✺
27.04.26	Mirra Andreeva - Anna Bondar	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Mirra Andreeva - Dalma Galfi	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Mirra Andreeva - Panna Udvardy	2:0 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
18.04.26	Elena Rybakina - Mirra Andreeva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Wimbledon
05.07.25	Mirra Andreeva - Hailey Baptiste	2:0

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