Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 26 April 2024, Friday

Referee: Forcadell N. (Esp)


	Hubert Hurkacz		Jack Draper

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.67	2.15
	1.55	2.45	Watch
	1.71	2.27
	1.71	2.27
	1.73	2.1
	1.58	2.18	Watch
	1.68	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.53)	2.23 ↓ (2.53)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hubert Hurkacz
57.3%

Jack Draper
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.5%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hubert Hurkacz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Jack Draper has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hubert Hurkacz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jack Draper, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	0%	26.7%

Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Hurkacz will win (votes: 22 - 73.3%). Draper will win (votes: 8 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hurkacz: 57.5% – 89.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Hurkacz is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Draper is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Draper could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Hurkacz will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Hurkacz won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
10.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
09.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper	2:1 ✺
ATP Estoril
07.04.24	Pedro Martinez Portero - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
06.04.24	Christian Garin - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWWWW
- Jack Draper
ATP Madrid
24.04.24	Thanasi Kokkinakis - Jack Draper	1:2 ✺
ATP Munich
19.04.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Jack Draper	2:1 ✺
17.04.24	Rudolf Molleker - Jack Draper	1:2 ✺
15.04.24	Vit Kopriva - Jack Draper	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper	2:1
ATP US Open
31.08.23	Jack Draper - Hubert Hurkacz	3:0
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.23	Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper	2:1
ATP Antwerp
19.10.22	Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper	2:1

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