Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday


	Hugo Gaston		Daniil Glinka

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.51	2.39	Watch
	1.57	2.52
	1.47	2.49	Watch
	1.53	2.38
	1.54	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.6)	2.43 ↑ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hugo Gaston
61.6%

Daniil Glinka
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hugo Gaston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Daniil Glinka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hugo Gaston that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Glinka than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniil Glinka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Hugo Gaston - Daniil Glinka Predictions

Users Predictions: Hugo Gaston will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hugo Gaston will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Gaston is ranked ATP: 95. Glinka is ranked ATP: 171.

Recent performances by Gaston have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Glinka's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gaston may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gaston will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Hugo Gaston - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.82%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hugo Gaston
ATP Challenger
28.02.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Ugo Blanchet - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Mikhail Kukushkin - Hugo Gaston	Gaston H. walkover ✺
24.02.26	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
18.02.26	Nishesh Basavareddy - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LW?WL
- Daniil Glinka
ATP Challenger
26.02.26	Marc-Andrea Huesler - Daniil Glinka	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Dylan Dietrich - Daniil Glinka	0:2 ✺
18.02.26	Daniil Glinka - Benjamin Bonzi	0:2 ✺
12.02.26	Daniil Glinka - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	Mark Lajal - Daniil Glinka	Lajal M. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LWLL?

Upcoming Matches