Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday


	Hugo Gaston		Liam Draxl

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.15
	1.62	2.15	Watch
	1.67	2.12	Watch
	1.64	2.19
	1.65	2.11	Watch
	1.64	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.6)	2.15 ↓ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hugo Gaston
56.7%

Liam Draxl
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Liam Draxl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liam Draxl than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Hugo Gaston - Liam Draxl Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaston (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gaston is ranked ATP: 87., and Draxl is ranked ATP: 215..

Both players have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Draxl could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Gaston holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Hugo Gaston - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.97%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hugo Gaston
ATP Hangzhou
27.09.26	Hugo Gaston - Andrey Rublev	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Jaime Faria - Hugo Gaston	1:2 ✺
24.09.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Daniil Medvedev - Hugo Gaston	3:0 ✺
28.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWLW
- Liam Draxl
ATP Challenger
23.09.26	Henry Searle - Liam Draxl	2:1 ✺
22.09.26	Jack Kennedy - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
19.09.26	Liam Draxl - Quentin Halys	Canceled ✺
18.09.26	Liam Draxl - Arthur Rinderknech	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
28.08.26	Liam Draxl - Tristan Schoolkate	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LW?WL

Hugo Gaston - Liam Draxl: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide