Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 22 April 2025, Tuesday


	Hugo Gaston		Luca Nardi

	1	2
			Watch
	1.67	2.1
	1.64	2.13	Watch
	1.71	2.17
	1.68	2.13	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.67	2.12	Watch
	1.64	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.75)	2.11 ↑ (2)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hugo Gaston
55.7%

Luca Nardi
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hugo Gaston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Luca Nardi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Hugo Gaston - Luca Nardi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaston (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Nardi (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Users Predictions: Hugo Gaston will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gaston is ranked ATP: 80. Nardi is ranked ATP: 100.

Recent matches Gaston is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nardi is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Nardi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hugo Gaston
ATP Madrid
21.04.25	Hugo Gaston - Yannick Hanfmann	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
12.04.25	Cameron Norrie - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
05.04.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
03.04.25	Luciano Darderi - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
01.04.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Hugo Gaston	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLLW
- Luca Nardi
ATP Madrid
21.04.25	Manas Manoj Dhamne - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
05.04.25	Luca Nardi - Arthur Rinderknech	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
01.04.25	Luca Nardi - Marton Fucsovics	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
17.03.25	Luca Nardi - Terence Atmane	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.03.25	Luca Nardi - Kei Nishikori	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 WLLLL

Hugo Gaston - Luca Nardi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide