Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Marrakech, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 April 2025, Thursday


	Luciano Darderi		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.57	2.35	Watch
	1.51	2.5	Watch
	1.48	2.61	Watch
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.54	2.49	Watch
	1.51	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.73)	2.49 ↑ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luciano Darderi
62%

Hugo Gaston
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luciano Darderi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luciano Darderi's performance.

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hugo Gaston might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luciano Darderi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hugo Gaston could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Luciano Darderi - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Darderi (votes: 3 - 50%). Gaston (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 Sets - Gaston (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 22.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Luciano Darderi will win (26 of 30 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.51% – 98.83%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Darderi (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Gaston (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Darderi is ranked ATP: 57. Gaston is ranked ATP: 84.

Darderi is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Gaston is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Darderi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Darderi will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Darderi won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Luciano Darderi - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.83%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luciano Darderi
ATP Marrakech
02.04.25	Luciano Darderi - Tristan Boyer	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.03.25	Luciano Darderi - Vit Kopriva	1:2 ✺
30.03.25	Luciano Darderi - Dalibor Svrcina	2:1 ✺
28.03.25	Luciano Darderi - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
27.03.25	Luciano Darderi - Sumit Nagal	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWWW
- Hugo Gaston
ATP Marrakech
01.04.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Hugo Gaston	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.25	Matteo Berrettini - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
20.03.25	Hugo Gaston - Yoshihito Nishioka	Nishioka Y. retired ✺
18.03.25	Hugo Gaston - Billy Harris	0:2 ✺
17.03.25	Hugo Gaston - Hady Habib	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WL?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
06.03.25	Luciano Darderi - Hugo Gaston	0:2
ATP Cordoba
06.02.23	Luciano Darderi - Hugo Gaston	2:0

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