Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuxi, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday


	Ilia Simakin		Alibek Kachmazov

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.72	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.8	2.02
	1.72	2.04	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.74	2	Watch
	1.74	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.86)	2.01 ↑ (1.86)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilia Simakin
53.6%

Alibek Kachmazov
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

52.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilia Simakin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Alibek Kachmazov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ilia Simakin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alibek Kachmazov than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alibek Kachmazov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Ilia Simakin - Alibek Kachmazov Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Simakin will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Kachmazov will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Simakin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Simakin is ranked ATP: 264. Kachmazov is ranked ATP: 161.

Simakin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kachmazov is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kachmazov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Simakin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Ilia Simakin - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.96%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Alibek Kachmazov - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 50.04%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
05.05.25	Rigele Te - Ilia Simakin	Te R. retired ✺
01.05.25	Ilia Simakin - Terence Atmane	1:2 ✺
29.04.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
29.04.25	Ye Cong Mo - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
23.04.25	Tristan Schoolkate - Ilia Simakin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 ?LWWL
- Alibek Kachmazov
ATP Challenger
05.05.25	Yu Hsiou Hsu - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2 ✺
03.05.25	Alibek Kachmazov - Tristan Schoolkate	1:2 ✺
02.05.25	Alibek Kachmazov - James McCabe	2:0 ✺
01.05.25	Adam Walton - Alibek Kachmazov	1:2 ✺
29.04.25	Fajing Sun - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
16.04.25	Alibek Kachmazov - Ilia Simakin	1:2
ITF Tournaments
14.04.23	Ilia Simakin - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2
10.03.20	Alibek Kachmazov - Ilia Simakin	2:0

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