Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday


	Jack Draper		Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

	1	2
	3.4	1.33	Watch
	3.2	1.36	Watch
	3.25	1.35	Watch
	3.28	1.39
	3.04	1.38	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3.11	1.37	Watch
	3.25	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (2.87)	1.37 ↑ (1.36)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jack Draper
30.1%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
69.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

67.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

69.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jack Draper has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.4%	0%	88.6%

Jack Draper - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Predictions

Users Predictions: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia will win (31 of 34 users predict this - 91.18%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.65% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Carlos Alcaraz Garfia will win (16 of 16 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Draper is ranked ATP: 5. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 3.

Draper is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Alcaraz Garfia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alcaraz Garfia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Draper won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jack Draper
ATP Roma
13.05.25	Jack Draper - Corentin Moutet	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Jack Draper - Vit Kopriva	2:0 ✺
09.05.25	Jack Draper - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
04.05.25	Casper Ruud - Jack Draper	2:1 ✺
02.05.25	Jack Draper - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWLW
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Roma
13.05.25	Karen Khachanov - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
11.05.25	Laslo Djere - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
09.05.25	Dusan Lajovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.25	Gabriel Diallo - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	Canceled
ATP Barcelona
20.04.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WWW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
15.03.25	Jack Draper - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:1
ATP Australian Open
19.01.25	Jack Draper - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	Draper J. retired
ATP London
20.06.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jack Draper	0:2
ATP Indian Wells
14.03.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jack Draper	Draper J. retired
ATP Basel
24.10.22	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jack Draper	2:1

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