Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 4
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Jack Draper		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.5	2.54	Watch
	1.55	2.47	Watch
	1.58	2.54
	1.62	2.33	Watch
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.58	2.5	Watch
	1.55	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.51)	2.49 ↓ (2.62)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jack Draper
61.7%

Lorenzo Musetti
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jack Draper has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.9%	0%	64.1%

Jack Draper - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Draper will win (votes: 13 - 35.1%). Musetti will win (votes: 24 - 64.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 49.5% – 80.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Draper (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Musetti (votes: 10 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4 Games - Musetti (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Musetti (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Draper (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Musetti (votes: 12 - 70.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Draper is ranked ATP: 6. Musetti is ranked ATP: 11.

Draper is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Musetti is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Draper could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Draper won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 2.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jack Draper
ATP Madrid
01.05.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
30.04.25	Jack Draper - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Berrettini	Berrettini M. retired ✺
26.04.25	Jack Draper - Tallon Griekspoor	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.25	Jack Draper - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WW?WL
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Madrid
01.05.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Gabriel Diallo	2:0 ✺
30.04.25	Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
29.04.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
26.04.25	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Jaume Munar	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Vienna
26.10.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Jack Draper	0:2
ATP Sofia
08.11.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Jack Draper	0:2
ATP Next Gen Finals
10.11.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Jack Draper	0:3
Boys Singles Wimbledon
12.07.18	Jack Draper - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1

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